Programmatic will be the default way digital ads are bought in 2026. Forecasts show spend surpassing $200 billion, with programmatic capturing ~90% of global display budgets and driving nearly all new display growth. At the same time, risks—from opaque supply paths to made-for-advertising (MFA) inventory and shifting privacy rules—continue to test marketers’ control and accountability (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025; IAB, 2025).

Growth Outlook for 2026

Market size and share

• Programmatic advertisers are on track to exceed $200B in 2026 (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025).

• By 2026, ~90% of digital display will transact programmatically, making manual IOs the exception (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025).

• Programmatic will account for ~96% of new display ad dollars in 2025–2026, underscoring where growth truly sits (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025).

Channel shifts: CTV, retail media, and curation

• CTV: US CTV ad spend is projected at $33.35B in 2025, rising to $46.89B by 2028, with >90% transacted programmatically—a structural tailwind for programmatic pipes (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025; Mountain Research, 2025).

• Curation & SPO: Curated supply and supply-path optimization gain importance as sellers fight to stay relevant and buyers seek efficiency (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025).

• Macro baseline: WARC projects total global ad spend to $1.23T by 2026, contextualizing programmatic’s expanding slice (MarketingProfs citing WARC, 2024).

Risk Landscape in 2026

Opaqueness & waste

The ISBA/PwC audit shows progress, with the “unknown delta” (unattributable spend) dropping from 15% in 2020 to 3% in 2023 through better data access and log-level matching—yet it also highlights how hard full reconciliation remains at scale (ISBA/PwC, 2023).

MFA and inventory quality

The ANA & TAG TrustNet benchmark indicates MFA spend fell from 15% to 4% among participating marketers between 2023 and 2024—a promising trend, but vigilance is needed as MFA supply adapts (ANA & TAG TrustNet, 2024).

Privacy, AI, and measurement

Evolving privacy laws and data-minimization norms change how audiences are built and measured; AI is rising but requires robust governance. Net effect: increased reliance on clean rooms, modeled measurement, and standardization (IAB State of Data 2025; IAB Privacy Survey 2025; IAB Tech Lab Roadmap 2025).

Price pressures

Media price inflation forecasts point upward into 2026 (e.g., US ~3.9%)—tightening effective reach even as budgets expand (WARC, 2025).

Key Facts

• >$200B in programmatic ad spend expected in 2026 (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025).

• ~90% of global display budgets programmatic by 2026 (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025).

• ~96% of new display dollars in 2025–2026 flow through programmatic (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025).

• “Unknown delta” reduced to 3% in ISBA/PwC’s 2023 audit (down from 15%) (ISBA/PwC, 2023).

• MFA spend down to 4% in ANA/TAG benchmark cohort (ANA & TAG TrustNet, 2024).

Forecasts and Trends

1. Programmatic penetration tops out across display: Near-total programmatic share for display forces differentiation via data quality, curation, and creative rather than transaction method (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025).

2. CTV’s momentum continues: More inventory, more programmatic pipes, and more need for verification as fraud vectors evolve (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025; Mountain Research, 2025).

3. Privacy-centered measurement: Investment into clean rooms, server-side signals, and standardized identifiers accelerates (IAB, 2025; IAB Tech Lab, 2025).

4. Efficiency pressure: Media inflation and governance expectations make SPO and log-level auditing baseline hygiene (WARC, 2025; ISBA/PwC, 2023).

Practical Takeaways / Solutions

• Consolidate supply paths (SPO): Reduce hops and focus on direct or curated routes with measurable outcomes.

• Adopt and enforce standards: ads.txt/app-ads.txt, sellers.json, schain, and ads.cert should be table stakes; require attestations from partners (IAB Tech Lab, 2025).

• Audit with log-level data: Make LLD matching a contractual requirement; ISBA and ANA work shows it materially reduces unknowns (ISBA/PwC, 2023; ANA, 2023).

• MFA controls and curation: Use curated marketplaces and apply MFA filters; benchmark your MFA exposure vs. ANA/TAG TrustNet cohorts (ANA & TAG TrustNet, 2024).

• CTV verification: Treat CTV like performance media—enable device-level verification and pre-bid safeguards; monitor reseller chains (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025).

Conclusion

Programmatic’s 2026 story is dual: rapid growth and higher standards. With spend surpassing $200B and programmatic at ~90% of display, scale is no longer the issue. Control is. Teams that standardize supply, demand log-level transparency, and deploy curation + verification will keep performance rising while risk declines.

FAQs

Q1. Will programmatic still grow in 2026 despite privacy changes?

Yes. Forecasts show continued growth driven by CTV and retail media, with programmatic accounting for virtually all new display dollars. Growth depends on privacy-safe data and measurement practices (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025; IAB, 2025).

Q2. Is the “unknown delta” still a major problem?

Less than before. ISBA/PwC’s second study cut unattributable spend to 3% through better data access and matching—evidence that operational discipline works (ISBA/PwC, 2023).

Q3. How risky is CTV programmatic buying?

It’s expanding rapidly and is mostly programmatic; the risk comes from reseller chains and inconsistent verification. Apply pre-bid/verification and insist on direct paths where possible (Insider Intelligence/eMarketer, 2025; Mountain Research, 2025).

References

Association of National Advertisers. (2023, December). Programmatic Media Supply Chain Transparency Study: Complete report. https://www.ana.net/miccontent/show/id/rr-2023-12-ana-programmatic-media-supply-chain-transparency-study 

Association of National Advertisers & TAG TrustNet. (2024, June 17). Programmatic Transparency Benchmark: Initial findings. https://www.tagtoday.net/pressreleases/ana-tag-trustnet-launch-programmatic-transparency-benchmark 

Insider Intelligence/eMarketer. (2025, January 1). By 2026, Programmatic Will Account for 90% of Display Advertising Budgets Worldwide. https://www.emarketer.com/chart/c/352128/by-2026-programmatic-will-account-90-of-display-advertising-budgets-worldwide-billions-programmatic-digital-display-ad-spending-worldwide-change-of-total-digital-display-ad-spending-2022-2026 

Insider Intelligence/eMarketer. (2025, March 19). Programmatic is driving growth in worldwide display ad spending. https://www.emarketer.com/content/programmatic-driving-growth-worldwide-display-ad-spending 

Insider Intelligence/eMarketer. (2025, February 12). Programmatic Advertising Forecast and Ad Tech Trends (H1 2025). https://www.emarketer.com/content/programmatic-advertising-forecast-and-ad-tech-trends-h1-2025 

Insider Intelligence/eMarketer. (2025, January 2). One of the largest sources of new video ad inventory spending: CTV. https://www.emarketer.com/content/one-of-largest-sources-of-new-video-ad-inventory-spending-ctv 

Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB). (2025, March 24). State of Data 2025. https://www.iab.com/news/iab-state-of-data-report-2025/ 

Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB). (2025, March 17). State Privacy Law Survey Results 2025. https://www.iab.com/insights/state-privacy-law-survey-results-2025/ 

IAB Tech Lab. (2025). Tech Lab 2025 Roadmap. https://iabtechlab.com/the-iab-tech-lab-2025-roadmap/ 

ISBA & PwC. (2023, January 18). Second Programmatic Supply Chain Transparency Study. https://www.isba.org.uk/knowledge/second-programmatic-supply-chain-transparency-study 

MarketingProfs (Nanji, A.). (2024). Global Ad Spend Outlook for 2024–2026. https://www.marketingprofs.com/charts/2024/51859/global-ad-spend-outlook-for-2024-2026 

Mountain Research. (2025). Over 90% of CTV ad spend is now transacted programmatically. https://research.mountain.com/trends/over-90-of-ctv-ad-spend-is-now-transacted-programmatically/ 

MAGNA Global. (2025, June). Global Ad Forecast—Summer update. https://magnaglobal.com/advertising-proves-resilient-amidst-economic-uncertainty/ 

WARC. (2025). Media inflation is set to rise in 2025 and 2026. https://www.warc.com/content/feed/media-inflation-is-set-to-rise-in-2025-and-2026/en-GB/9964 

Share