Ad fraud could cost advertisers $220B by 2026

Ad fraud is one of the most pressing challenges facing digital advertising. As global media spending grows, fraudsters exploit programmatic channels, connected TV (CTV), and mobile ecosystems to siphon billions of dollars in wasted ad budgets. Recent forecasts suggest ad fraud could cost advertisers $220 billion by 2026 (Juniper Research, 2024; IAB Tech Lab, 2023). Understanding the scale, mechanics, and controls is essential for marketers and media agencies.

The Scale of Ad Fraud

Global ad spend reached approximately $1.1 trillion in 2024 and is projected to surpass $1.2 trillion by 2026 (Statista, 2025). If fraud rates continue to account for 10–15% of digital spend, advertisers could collectively lose over $220 billion annually by 2026.

In 2023, the IAB Tech Lab estimated losses of $68.2 billion, equal to 13.3% of global digital ad spend.
By 2025, Spider Labs reported fraud totaling $41.4 billion, likely due to narrower definitions of invalid traffic.
Juniper Research projects losses could climb to $150–220 billion by 2026.

Why $220B by 2026 Matters

For every $100 million spent on digital ads, fraud could drain $10–13 million. This not only reduces campaign efficiency but also undermines trust between advertisers, agencies, and clients.

Key reasons why the $220 billion forecast matters:

Budget leakage: Significant waste reduces ROI across campaigns.
Boardroom impact: Executives face pressure to justify marketing efficiency.
Brand safety: Fraud is often tied to unsafe or misleading inventory.
Strategic risk: Rising fraud erodes confidence in programmatic ecosystems.

Key Facts

$68.2B lost to ad fraud in 2023 (IAB Tech Lab).
$41.4B estimated losses in 2025 (Spider Labs).
$150–220B projected annual losses by 2026 (Juniper Research).
10–15% of global digital ad spend is estimated to be fraudulent.
90% of display ad spend will be programmatic by 2026 (eMarketer).

Types of Ad Fraud

Invalid Traffic

Sophisticated Invalid Traffic (SIVT) includes bots, automated scripts, and hijacked devices. These fake users mimic engagement but deliver no value.

Click Fraud

Click farms and bots generate illegitimate clicks to drain budgets. This is common in search and social campaigns where advertisers pay per click.

CTV and MFA Sites

Connected TV and “Made-for-Advertising” (MFA) sites are growing threats. Fraudsters spoof streaming inventory or build low-quality sites designed only to absorb ad impressions.

Industry Forecasts and Discrepancies

Different research organizations report widely varying figures:

IAB Tech Lab (2023): $68.2B in annual losses, 13.3% of digital spend.
Spider Labs (2025): $41.4B in losses, focused on specific fraud types.
Juniper Research (2026 forecast): $150–220B by 2026.

The discrepancies arise from scope and methodology. Some models include only programmatic display, while others extend to mobile app installs, CTV, and social platforms. Reconciling these, a reasonable forecast is $100–220B annually by 2026.

How Advertisers Can Reduce Risk

Mitigation requires layered controls across the ad supply chain. Proven strategies include:

Pre-bid fraud filtering: Blocks suspicious impressions before bidding.
ads.txt and app-ads.txt adoption: Ensures inventory is purchased from authorized sellers.
Log-level auditing: Provides granular transparency into impression delivery.
Supply Path Optimization (SPO): Reduces intermediaries and exposure to fraudulent resellers.
Third-party verification: Partners such as DoubleVerify, HUMAN, and IAS provide independent fraud checks.

Conclusion

Ad fraud is not just a technical problem—it is a financial and strategic threat to global advertisers. By 2026, the annual cost could exceed $220 billion, draining up to 15% of digital ad budgets. To defend against this, advertisers must implement layered safeguards, demand transparency, and work with trusted partners who prioritize fraud prevention.

FAQs

Q1: Can ad fraud be eliminated completely?

No. Like financial fraud, it can be minimized but not eradicated. Continuous monitoring and controls are essential.

Q2: Which channels are most affected by ad fraud?

Programmatic display, CTV, and mobile app installs are among the most vulnerable due to their scale and fragmented ecosystems.

Q3: What is the simplest step advertisers can take?

Adopting ads.txt and working with independent verification partners are baseline measures every advertiser should implement.

References

IAB Tech Lab. (2023). Ad fraud and invalid traffic estimates. Cited in Veracity Trust Network. Retrieved from https://veracitytrustnetwork.com/blog/ad-fraud-prevention/the-bots-are-here-and-theyre-wreaking-havoc/

Juniper Research. (2024). Ad fraud market forecast 2023–2026. Cited in Veracity Trust Network. Retrieved from https://veracitytrustnetwork.com/blog/ad-fraud-prevention/the-bots-are-here-and-theyre-wreaking-havoc/

Spider Labs. (2025, August 14). Ad fraud trends 2025: Key threats and how to combat them. Retrieved from https://spideraf.com/articles/ad-fraud-trends-2025-key-threats-and-how-to-combat-them

Statista. (2025, February 5). Global advertising spend 2024–2027. Retrieved from https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2025-sub-section-global-advertising-trends

eMarketer. (2025). Programmatic share of display ad spend. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_display_advertising